I Usually Don't Get Worked Up Over These Things, But...

Here's a report from Enrique Rojas of ESPN.com on their "MLB Winter Meetings Blog" :

The proposed trade between the Nationals and Rockies involving right-hander Tim Redding and outfielder Willy Taveras fell apart because one of the players did not pass his physical exam.

You mean the Willie Taveras? The same guy who went .251/.308/.296 last season in 470 at bats. Read that middle number again. He had a .308 on base percentage last season. Granted, he led the NL in stolen bases. But you know what the result was? 64 runs scored. SIXTY FOUR.

Willie Harris scored 58 runs in 100 less at bats from the bottom of the order for the most part.

For the SABR inclined reader, his OPS+ was 56. This number is based off how good a player is plus-or-minus 100. Of players with 350+ at bats, Corey Patterson was the worst in the NL at 48. Taveras was bottom ten.

He led off for the bulk of his at bats, and while in that slot OBP'd a cool .299.

Lifetime, his slash stats are: .283/.331/.337 (OPS+ 72). So at age 26, when a player starts to enter his prime years, Taveras had his statistically worst year in the bigs. Oh yeah, as a point of reference, Nook Logan's career OPS+ is 76.

Harris has OPS+'d 94 and 98 the last two years as a part-time player. His lifetime OPS+ is 75.

Of Taveras' 558 career hits, 80 have been of the extra-base variety. He's never had 20 doubles in a season, despite all that speed. His career triples high is five, despite all that speed and playing in Colorado the last two years.

He's had seven career home runs in 1972 at bats.

Now, I'm not going to argue that the Nats shouldn't trade Tim Redding if they get a good deal for a player in a position of need. But Willie Taveras, statistically speaking, was one of THE WORST regular position players in the majors last year. If you have a fantasy team where you need stolen bases and have a bunch of high average guys to cover for Taveras, sure, trade Redding for him. But real baseball doesn't work like fantasy.

Taveras is good for only one thing: Stealing second base when one of his weak ground balls manages to make its way through the infield.

Meet the Press with Willingham and Olsen

The Washington Nationals held a press conference today at Nationals Park to introduce OF Josh Willingham and LHP Scott Olsen, acquired Wednesday night for 2B Emilio Bonifacio and minor leaguers RHP P.J. Dean and SS Jake Smolinski. General Manager Jim Bowden, Assistant GM Mike Rizzo and Special Assistant Bob Boone were also in attendance.


Some highlights:

• Willingham on his position:

  "I'm a left fielder as far as I know."

• Bowden on Willingham's position:

  "We acquired him as a corner outfielder, not as a first baseman."
  
  
  
• Olsen on his fluctuating velocity last season:

"I missed a week and a half of spring training which kind of set my throwing program back which might have been arm strength that wasn’t able to get built up like it had been. "

• Bowden on the message this trade sends to the fans and to the team:

"This is a huge message to send to the Washington Nationals' fans."

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Here's the full transcript. If you just want my commentary, it's at the bottom.

Bowden: The Washington Nationals want to wish everyone a happy Veteran's Day. We chose to trade three minor leaguers for two veterans on Veteran's Day. Last Wednesday at the General Managers' meeting we completed a five-player trade with the Florida Marlins. Late last night we concluded the trade: the Washington Nationals acquiring 24-year old left handed pitcher Scott Olsen and outfielder Josh Willingham. This continues our plan to build an organization for the long term. We believe Scott, a young left handed starting pitcher that pitched over 200 innings last year, 190 the year before, continues to improve, developed a third pitch this year, his changeup, to go along with his fastball and his slider and certainly we feel he has the chance to be a major part of our rotation for a long time. Josh Willingham gives you a tremendous at bat every time up, in fact he's sixth in the major leagues for right hand hitters with 4.1 pitches per at bat. He can hit the tough pitcher and the tough pitch. Really knows how to give a good at bat. Both these guys are winners. We're very very pleased to introduce them to you today. And we'll start with Josh Willingham.

Willingham: I'll just say that I'm happy to be a Washington National. Florida was the only organization that I knew. I was drafted in 2000 by them and had developed good relationships and they gave me the opportunity to play at the big league level for the first time. So I have a lot of good things to say about that organization and very grateful for the opportunity that they gave me. Moving forward this is a brand new opportunity that I'm looking forward to. I know some of the guys on this team, met everybody, everybody's been great. I'm really looking forward to moving forward with the Nationals. You talk about the plan they have for this team and I'm going to believe in it. You know what you'll get from me. I'm going to play hard every day. I love playing the game, I think that's the most important part. Just to have an opportunity to play in this stadium of this caliber, it's brand new and think it's going to be a good opportunity and I'm looking forward to it and I appreciate the opportunity.

Olsen: Very similar story to Josh. I got drafted by the Marlins and that's all I've ever known. I've never been traded before so this is all new for me and meeting all the new people here, everybody's been great. It's the same game no matter where you're at and I look forward to playing here and being a National and try to win. That's the bottom line is you want to win ballgames. And with the group we have we're going to go out and play hard and hopefully we're going to be able to do that.

Olsen (on confidence): I developed a third pitch which helped tremendously. Coming into 2005 and 2006 I really only had a fastball/slider and it worked well for a year. I never had enough confidence in the changeup until about half way through 2007 and then in 2008 I started throwing it a lot. I finally found a grip I liked. A lot of it was just having confidence in the fact that if you throw it where you want to threw it you're going to get a good result. My confidence got built up with that pitch and it really turned things around for me.

Olsen (on being the ace): You want to be the ace no matter where you're at. I think that at least for me I apply myself so that I can be out there every five days. I don't like missing any starts and as part of an ace that's what you've got to do. I'm sure I'm not the only one of people in the rotation that want to be that. I expect an open competition and we'll see in spring training what happens since it's not my decision.

Olsen (on what it will take to get to the next level): I hope there's another level. I would like to think you're never satisfied with the year. As a pitcher you pretty much aren't going to go 33-0 so there's always room for improving and you just try to do that. You watch tapes and you try to improve on any small aspect or big aspect of the game to help you win. But I hope there's another level up there.

Olsen (on his fluctuating velocity last year): Honestly, I have no idea. I got a lot of questions about my velocity early on in the year. I was pitching pretty well early on and it didn't seem to affect anything. I missed a week and a half of ST which kind of set my throwing program back which might have been arm strength that wasn’t able to get built up like it had been. Over the course [of the season] by September your arm strength is there so the velocity comes back. I think, presuming we stay healthy, I don't think that'll be an issue.

Willingham (on his position): I've played a lot of positions. I'm a left fielder as far as I know. The past three years that’s where I've played exclusively. I've done some catching before and was in infielder before that. I'm comfortable in left field now. I can play other positions but that something I haven't discussed.

Bowden (on Willingham's position): We acquired him as a corner outfielder, not as a first baseman.

Bowden (on trading for vets): It shows the commitment from ownership and from Stan Kasten, our president. We're really determined on winning for our fans. This is a huge message to send to the Washington Nationals' fans. But remember, these guys are still very young, they’re in their 20's so we control them for three more years. This was not a trade and rent-a-player for a year. These are two players that can spend a long time playing here. We're all embarrassed by the season we had last year. Its strictly unacceptable. You want to talk about injuries or lack of depth or whatever it was--it's embarrassing and except for the first pick overall we're getting in June, we don't ever want to have that happen again. We're on a mission to continue the plan and bring winning baseball back here to Washington.

Bowden (on 2B job): Manny Acta will make that decision. Those decisions will happen once we get to spring training, not now. There's a lot that can happen between now and then. Certainly we were impressed with what Anderson did here in September. He hit over .300 for us (ed. .333/.407/.383 with no home runs and 17 RBI in 81 at bats for DC last season), drove some runs in. He's gone to winter ball and he's hitting .400 over there (ed. .404/.432/.629 with one home run and 15 RBI and four steals in 89 at bats). Our reports are tremendous on what he's done there. We remember that he led the Pacific Coast League in hits the year before. So maybe he's just starting to mature, come into his own and he's certainly someone that's going to be given consideration.

Bowden (on OF sorting out): I'm always a big fan of competition. Whenever you have depth you also have means to make other deals to make your team better in other areas. Those are decisions Manny will make when we get to spring training and have our team set at that point.

Willingham (on trade rumors): You knew there were going to be some deals made because of the significant number of players that were going to be going to arbitration. As far as who, you didn't know who. I think they [the Marlins] made it pretty obvious that they were going to make some deals. I didn't have a clue if I was going to be in it until last night.

Olsen (on trade rumors): I had a pretty good idea that I was going to be moved, just based on the situation and all the starting pitchers that they had in Florida. I had a feeling, it was just a matter of where and when it was all going to be finalized.

Olsen (on maturing): I knew something had to change. It just started off slow and you just try to keep yourself out of situations where there might be a problem. I think that's the biggest thing with this maturing and everything that everybody claims that I've done. It think it comes down to one thing and that's just don't be in a situation where something might happen.

Rizzo (on Bonifacio): He's an exciting player, but you have to give to get. To get a 24 year old starting pitcher and an established power corner player you have to give up some things to get them and Bonifacio was certainly something that was painful to give up, as were the two young players. But in this industry, to land a position player and a pitcher of their ability levels you have to give up something.

Bowden (on financial flexibility): We have flexibility. There's no question that Stan [Kasten] and ownership want to build an organization that can win not just in the short term but the long term, and we're continuing along that same plan--that's not going to be changed because one year that we had. If there was a free agent that fit into those long-term plans, that’s a possibility. I think our preference is always to build through the draft and trades. All of us agree that’s the best way to do it, but will we look at other avenues and free agency, of course. It would be stultifying not to.

Bowden (on team morale): It shows that you have a commitment to winning. A commitment that we're going to continue to go in the right direction and we're not just going to wait for the farm system to develop players here. We said when we were building up our development and scouting that one of the means of using it would be for trading, and we've lived up to that. Without that great scouting…this trade doesn't happen for us.

Willingham (on his back injuries): The back is good. It's been good since I was able to come back and play, I guess late June -- I don't know the exact day I came back. I was healthy, it just took me a little while to get going when I came back and it's been good every since. You never know what's going to happen, but it's something that I'm a lot more comfortable managing myself. I met with a lot of doctors and it's something that we've got definite plan when something flares up.

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So there you have it, for better or worse. There's already a lot that's been written about this deal, and I'm sure that there will be many more volumes as well. The deal makes next year's team better and I don't think they gave up all that much to accomplish that. Bowden's larger message is that the organization realizes that the fan base is going to shrink and that they HAD TO address the talent level on the major league roster, what Nats fans pay to watch.

Are Willingham and Olsen all-stars? Probably not. We pretty much know was Willingham is, barring a Ryan Ludwick-type explosion. Olsen? He's just 24. He's got three full seasons in the bigs. His velocity returned in September. He still hasn't entered his physical prime.

I'm not going to harp on the team for deviating from "The Plan" like some of my brethren. They didn't trade anyone away that was going to be part of the "first great Nats team". They aren't blocking anyone that should be playing. To the contrary, Olsen will allow Martis and Zimmermann to stay in the minors where they belong for another season.

The Nats got two completely average major league players for a utility infielder and two fringy low minors prospects. Love it or leave it.

Nats Add Willingham, Olsen

Washington Nationals General Manager Jim Bowden made his first significant move of the off-season, acquiring OF Josh Willingham and LHP Scott Olsen from the Florida Marlins for 2B Emilio Bonifacio and low minor leaguers RHP P.J. Dean and SS Jake Smolinski.

Willingham and Olsen are both arbitration eligible, so their big league salaries will increase this off-season. This marks a major acquisition for a team that has been practicing patience and rebuilding through the draft and the minor leagues.

Willingham, 30, appeared in 102 games last season and hit .254/.364/.470 with 15 home runs and 51 RBI. He hit 26 and 21 homers in 2006 and 2007, and he has a lifetime .361 on base percentage He's a corner outfielder by trade, and the deal will have repercussions throughout the lineup. If Willingham plays in the outfield, something will have to give with Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes or Austin Kearns. Willingham could also play first base, which would displace Nick Johnson, who is recovering from wrist surgery.

Olsen is a 24-year old left hander. He went 8-11 with a 4.97 ERA in 2008 over 33 starts and 201.2 innings. Last year's numbers were somewhat of a regression from his rookie season, and Olsen has a history of physical confrontation with teammates and a drunk driving arrest. But he represents a major upgrade over most of the other candidates for the Nationals 2009 rotation.

Bonifacio, acquired from Arizona at last year's trade deadline for reliever Jon Rauch, was slated to be the Nats starting second baseman and lead off hitter, but was outplayed down the stretch by Anderson Hernandez and Alberto Gonzalez.

Dean, 22, pitched for Class A Vermont, going 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA in 10 starts. Smolinski, 19, played for the Gulf Coast Nationals, Vermont and Class A Hagerstown, and hit .271 with four home runs and 33 RBIs.

BOTTOM(FEEDER) LINE: So Stan Kasten and Jim Bowden think the Nats aren't that far away and acquired a couple of major league parts for what will be a utility infielder for Florida and a couple of low-level prospects. As soon as I saw this, I thought to myself, "What's the next domino to fall?" This only makes me think MORE that the Nats will sign either Teixiera or Dunn this off-season.

With as bad as the team was last season, and season ticket holders dwindling, the organization HAD TO do something to improve the quality of the major league product. This obviously gives them two more major league players. With a legitimate cleanup hitter, their everyday lineup won't be all that indistinguishable from anyone of eight or ten teams that consider themselves wild card candidates. The starting rotation needs another veteran, but at least Nats fans will watch major league baseball this summer, without -- and this is the key -- giving up the farm.

Photo (c) C. Nichols 2008.

Much Ado About Nothing

Now that the World Series has thankfully passed and gone away, we're onto the Hot Stove portion of the baseball season. The GMs are collecting in Dana Point, CA this week for their annual meetings to discuss free agents and trade markets over pina coladas.

Nats' GM Jim Bowden (yup, still here) has a lot of work to do in overhauling what was the worst team in baseball last year. Garnering the #1 pick in next year's amateur draft is nice, and since it's doubled up with the tenth pick for failing to sign last year's first rounder Aaron Crow, the Nats' scouting department (Now With More Scouts!) had their work cut out for them. But the fruits of next year's draft will only be realized down the road, not benefiting next season's big league squad.

That's where Jim Bowden -- for better or worse -- comes in. It's his job to put together a major league squad in the off-season. And if you're a season ticket holder like me (who has already, by the way, received my invoice for next year), you'll want to know what Bowden does to improve the squad. If you objectively take a look at the Nats 40-man roster and project an opening day roster the answer, unfortunately, is probably not much.

After essentially waiving Chad Cordero, Pete Orr and Ryan Wagner last week, the Nats have six players eligible for arbitration: Ryan Zimmerman, Tim Redding, Saul Rivera, Willie Harris, Jesus Colome and Shawn Hill. They still have control over Zimmerman, so don't expect the team to open up their pocketbooks any earlier than they have to. They'll extend the least amount possible to renew Zim, further alienating him and his agent to the possibility of along-term deal. But that's another column. Guess that they offer Redding, Rivera, Harris and Colome arbitration. Hill's a big medical question. Anyone heard anything about him lately? I haven't.

So where does that leave the squad? Here's one blogger's impression of the opening day roster:

OF (5): Milledge, Dukes, Kearns, Pena, Harris
INF (6): Zimmerman, Young, Johnson, Belliard, Guzman, Bonifacio
C (2): Flores, back-up (Nieves hopefully)
SP (5): Redding, Lannan, Balestar, Martis, Free Agent
RP (7): Hanrahan, Rivera, Hinckley, Bergmann, Colome, Mock, Shell
Players on 40-man left out: Bernadina, Maxwell, Montz, Hernandez, Casto, Gonzalez, Chico, Clippard, Detwiler, Hill, O'Connor, Estrada

So where, exactly, does that leave the Nats room to ponder new players, either by free agency or trade? Obviously, first base needs to be upgraded, but the team is on the hook for both Johnson ($5.5M) and Young ($5M) at a significant rate. They both come off the books at the end of 2009, but can/will the Nats eat either of these contracts?

There's a lot of speculation right now, about what the Nats may or may not do this off-season about upgrading the offense next season. Adam Dunn is the rumor that won't go away. But the bottom line may be: nothing. The infield is set, unless they eat either Johnson or Young's contract. They have three candidates for the second base job as it is, and Belliard is the back up all over the infield. If they re-sign Harris, the outfield is set too, with Wily Mo Pena blocking up a roster spot for someone. So if the offense improves, it will probably come from the internal players improvement.

As for pitching, well, here is the glaring spot that the major league roster needs help. Yes, there's a lot of good young pitching in the farm system, but someone has to pitch until then. Even if you pencil in Redding (not a given) with 24-year old Lannan, 22-year old Balestar and then 22-year old Martis, there's another spot open.

The GM said Jordan Zimermann will compete for the spot, but is that fair? He has just 187 innings pitched in 38 minor league games between Vermont, Potomac and Harrisburg. Granted, his 2.74 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 205/65 strikeout-to-walk rate all look pretty good. But will that translate into a spot in the opening day rotation? Other candidates are Hill, O'Connor, Mock, Bergmann, Clippard and Detwiler. Mock and Bergamnn will probably be pressed into duty in the bullpen, leaving the competition pretty thin.

This leaves the Nats with the option of filling a spot with a veteran if they so choose, much like they did this year with Odalis Perez. Who might that candidate be? Well, it won't be Sabathia, Dempster, Lowe or Burnett, that's for sure. There's no way the Nats spring for someone that will take a multi-year contract. Some guy at SI.com says the Nats will sign Pedro Martinez! Fat chance. IF the Nats decide to sign a free agent pitcher, it will very likely be of the bargain basement one-year variety right before--or during--spring training, a la Odalis. Among the group that might be left could be Randy Wolf, Brett Tomko, Steve Traschel, Jason Jennings, etc.

Not very inspiring, but any of these fine gentlemen would allow Zimmermann, Detwiler, et al to get some more minor league time under their belts. Remember, all these scenarios envision Redding re-signing, AND Balestar AND Martis in the rotation. That, my friends, is an awful lot of conjecture.

And the bullpen, for better or worse, looks set. Hanrahan will close. Rivera and Hinckley will set-up. Bergmann, Mock, Shell and Colome pick up the slack. Estrada and a host of others in AAA Syracuse (enjoy April up there fellas) will be at the ready. It's entirely possible the team signs a moderately priced free agent to help out. Someone like Jeremy Affeldt would probably be too expensive, but would be a great addition. He's a quality lefty that could also close should Hanrahan falter. But the market will be flooded with free agent relivers looking for work.

An objective eye into the 40-man roster sees very little opportunity for drastic improvement. The team has stated on many occasions that their primary objective is to re-build the minor leagues and strive for the future. So far, they've stuck to "The Plan". Will this off-season bring deviation to The Plan? GM Jim Bowden has gone on record saying he'd like to acquire a middle-of-the-order slugger that meets the team's stated goals. Here's what he told season ticket holders last September as part of a public Q&A:

"Ideally we'd like to have a controlled player, in his 20s, that can be part of the solution."

Wouldn't every team like that player? In the same widely speculative article that MLB.com's Bill Ladson published yesterday about Adam Dunn, he also mentioned Prince Fielder and Matt Hollday as possible trade candidates. Fielder is arbitration eligiable, but generally fits the description above, while Holliday is only under contract for 2009 -- basically a rent-a-player, much like Alfonso Soriano.

So as the GM meetings evolve into the winter meetings, and the holidays give way to spring training, ask yourself this: What has the team and GM done today to make the 2009 major league roster better than the 2008 model? The answer, quite possibly, could be absolutely nothing.

Photo by Getty Images

Assessing the Blame

Chico Harlan of the Post had an in-depth interview with Manny Acta at the end of last week (unknown if it was before or after he knew almost all of his coaches would be released). Among the nuggets was that Manny wouldn't evaluate himself, that he would let others do that. So, where should we start? Obviously Acta was not dealt a full hand on the playing field, so it's hard to access the job he did baseball-wise. So how about in the clubhouse?

Acta talks about the "change in character" of the guys in the clubhouse at the end of the season compared to the beginning. How much can a couple bad apples spoil the cart? To hear Acta and other team officials the last few days, quite a bit. But what the team hasn't said, despite further trying to distance themselves from Paul LoDuca, Johnny Estrada, Felipe Lopez, Jon Rauch and Luis Ayala, is how these players became the malcontents in the first place. Who should be held responsible for that?

LoDuca has a long and storied history of being a trouble-maker in the clubhouse. He's the rah-rah guy that isn't getting the job done in the first place. If LoDuca had hit .280 instead of .230, would he still have been a bad character guy? So LoDuca and Estrada both complained about not starting at catcher when they came back from injury as Jesus Flores cemented the starting position -- one he probably should have had from spring training. Did the team lead them on when they signed them? Did they promise X amount of playing time? Or did they just assume as "dependable veterans" they would have a spot waiting. And so much for Estrada's vow to get back at the Nats. He hasn't even has so much as a sniff of a contract since his departure.

Lopez is a head-scratcher. He started for this team pretty much from the get go, first in left then at second base. In 325 at bats, he hit a paltry .234/.305/.314 with 2 HRs and 25 RBIs. Some wondered if his playing career was over. Then, a day after the team couldn't give him away at the trade deadline, he signed with St. Louis as a free agent, and in 156 at bats he hit .385/.426/.538 with 4 HRs and 21 RBIs. He drove in almost as many runs in his 156 at bats in St. Louis than in 325 at bats here. How does a player flip a switch and go from bad to good just like that?

Luis Ayala was passed over for the closers job, twice. When Cordero got hurt, the job went to Jon Rauch. By many accounts, Rauch and Ayala did not get along very well. Not shocking; the men come from different backgrounds, have vastly different personalities, etc. At least Rauch was a veteran with extensive experience like Ayala, but that didn't keep Ayala from apparently asking for a trade and sulking all season like Rauch ripped the head off his teddy bear. Then, when Rauch was traded, Ayala was passed over AGAIN, this time for rookie Joel Hanrahan, a pitcher who has had his share of commend problems. Granted, Hanrahan has done a mostly good job since given the keys to the ninth inning. But how would YOU feel if you were passed over for a promotion you felt qualified for, TWICE; once by a disliked co-worker and the second time by an entry-level staffer?

So if this team was filled by attitude problems and malcontents for much of the year, who is to blame? Certainly no one has stepped up so far to say "I could have done a better job at handling that situation" or "I made a mistake signing this guy to begin with". Acta makes a point of how he goes about his business:

"But I haven't done anything different than I've done in the past. At all. And that's where bad characters come out, when things are not going well. I have no regrets, and I'm not going to change. I give players space. I let them have their own space. I don't need to be in their locker room all day and in their faces. I need to give them space. That's why I draw a line. I have a good atmosphere for them over here, and they respect me and I respect them."

But then later he acknowledges there was a problem in his clubhouse:

Q: Looking at the clubhouse -- beginning of the year to now, has there been a change in the character here, and do you feel better about the composition of things?

A: I do. I think everybody was able to tell the difference. We needed some new blood in here, some hungry young guys like we have gotten, and things have gotten better. Listen, not one clubhouse in the big leagues is perfect. You can never put together 25 high-character guys. You're always going to find a couple of guys who need more work than the other ones when it comes down to shaping their attitude and how they approach their job. But we're moving in the right direction.

Q: Were there too many bad characters on this team at the beginning of the year, do you think?

A: Umm... I think so. I think so. I think when you're building, like we're doing here, I think you need more high-character guys than what we had at the beginning of the season. Without naming any guys.

Q: Organizationally, lesson learned maybe?

A: Yes. I think we have. I think we have.

So if you have "a couple of guys who need more work" and know that when you're losing "that's where bad characters come out," but insist on "giv[ing] players space", what else would you expect than to have a clubhouse that "need[ed] some new blood in here."

For all the penny pinching the Larners have been accused of -- including allowing their first round draft pick go for what amounted to $900K -- it's indicative of this management team to have to throw away almost $14MM in salary to get rid of bad characters Lopez ($4.9MM), LoDuca ($5MM), Estrada ($1MM), Ayala ($1.7MM) and Rauch ($1.2MM), most of which they went out and acquired on purpose in the first place.

So who is to blame? The Larners for being cheap in the first place, making the team sign washed up veterans to start with? Bowden for selecting and signing the malcontents? Acta for his laisse-faire attitude in the clubhouse? Seems like there's plenty of blame to go around, but to this point, no one has accepted it.

(Almost) Everyone Fired

In a press release issued by the team immediately following today's 8-3 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies, the Washington Nationals dismissed their entire coaching staff except Manager Manny Acta and pitching coach Randy St. Claire.

The coaches that were sacked included bench coach Pat Corrales, third base coach Tim Tolman, first base coach Jerry Morales, hitting coach Lenny Harris, bullpen coach Rick Aponte and strength and conditioning coordinator Kazuhiko Tomooka.

It's an almost complete overhaul for a team that finished with 102 losses, the worst record in major league baseball. Because of Thursday night's rain-out, the team finished with a record of 59-102, assuring the franchise the #1 overall pick in next year's amateur draft.

There has been speculation much of the season about the job status of General Manager Jim Bowden, and at this writing, there has been no further word on his status.

Team President--and minority owner--Stan Kasten this past week issued denials of his desire to step aside, saying that his primary responsibility is rebuilding this team and bringing a winning team to Washington.

Good Heavens

An article in the Sporting News on-line today recounts a story that is Exhibit A why the Nationals are the "miserable" franchise yesterday's Times article suggests:

Trouble in D.C.

The shotgun marriage of Washington Nationals president Stan Kasten and general manager Jim Bowden should end soon. According to several major league officials, Kasten wanted to fire a member of the Nationals' scouting staff for an embarrassing display in the press box before a game at Colorado. The scout loudly and profanely criticized the Rockies' player-development operation. Bowden convinced ownership to keep the scout in question. That showed Kasten that he lacked the authority to do the job as he did with Atlanta. As Braves president, Kasten was an unheralded hero for the manner in which he brought order to the organization and allowed the baseball operation to do its job without outside interference.

The Nationals desperately needed the same type of leadership. If Kasten leaves, as expected, it will be a huge setback for an organization mired in chaos. That seems to be Bowden's preferred manner of operation.

This is the worst possible news at the worst possible time. On the heels of Friday's Q&A and the Times insightful article about the misery surrounding the franchise this team seems to be stuck in a quagmire of negative vibes.

But if this Sporting News article is true, we all might as well go back to rooting for our original teams. If the Lerners are going to pander to Jim Bowden and effectively neuter Stan Kasten, keeping him from being able to fully execute "the Plan" while Bodes continues to embarrass himself, the organization and its fans with practically everything he touches? Well, that's a dark day indeed my friends.

A lot of big ticket firings/retirements/quittings happen the day after the season ends. Monday will go a long way in determining the future of this franchise.

Here's the link to the full story. The bit on the Nats is half way down.

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=462356

Bowden & Rizzo Post-Mortem, Part Deux

Same format.
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Q (Unidentified): To Rizzo: Can you describe what you look at over the summer leagues and who are the top three candidates in next year's draft if you had to say today?

A (MR): Summer leagues reviewed by Dana Brown, and his staff is feverishly working and scouting right now. Cape Cod is scouted "intensely". "We're well into the beginning of preparation for the '09 draft." As for naming the top three, he said, "It is a long ways from the draft. I don't like to name names of people that we're bearing down and looking at. We're going to do our due diligence on all our players that we have, and Strasburg's name comes up, Green the shortstop at Southern Cal, there's a bunch of names that we feel are on the upper echelon of the 2009 draft."

C (BF): Fairly standard answer. Doesn't want to tip his hand, but Strasburg, as mentioned in any number of baseball publications, is the consensus #1 pick in next year's draft. Now Seattle just has to win one or two of its final seven games.

Q (Unidentified): Why did we have so many injuries? Can we do something about our training staff? Also, "What would we have been, record-wise, if we did not have the injuries this year?"

A (JB): "Always" looking into better ways of training, treatment, etc.

A (MR): "In our minor league system, we've done a phenomenal job of keeping pitchers healthy." "Position player-wise, it's good to draft athletes that are strong, flexible, versatile..."

A (JB): "All of our baseball people felt that if we stayed healthy, and all the players performed up to their potential, we could have gone 82-80."

C (BF): There, my friends, was my favorite answer of the day. Jim Bowden thought this team was talented enough to go 82-80 out of spring training. As far as talent evaluation goes, that simple statement is grounds for dismissal. So either he's telling the truth and has zero concept about how to evaluate personnel to assemble a winning baseball team or he lied to this fan in public in answering this question. It's a classic Bowden answer too. "[I]f all the players performed up to their potential" is the prototypical Bowden deflection statement. He over hypes the players, then when they fail to live up to the inflated expectations he placed on them, it's their fault they failed to reach those expectation.

Q (CS): As far as injuries, aren't there are some injuries you can't do anything about?

A (JB): "When a player is hurt, you're not going to get a player playing up to their potential." "Doctors couldn't understand how [Kearns] could actually be throwing a baseball" due to the chips in his elbow.

C (BF): Of course when a player is playing hurt he's not going to live up to his potential, let alone achieve his normal level of success. Bowden is all about potential instead of realizing what a player is and evaluating him as such. He sees Kearns and thinks, "This guy has the potential to hit 30 home runs" and suddenly, he's got that expectation of him, instead of concentrating on the fact that Kearns has hit more than 20 homers exactly once in his big league career. It's a fairly typical problem of old-school GMs though, to evaluate and plan based on potential instead of performance. That's one of the bigger points that most people fail to grasp about the book Moneyball. The point Michael Lewis was trying to make about Billy Beane wasn't that he was trying to fill his system with "three true outcome" guys, but that he evaluated players based on what they do on the field, not the potential of what they might do.

Q (Unidentified): How do you feel about the success of the teams in the minors, and can you name a couple of the minor leaguers that might make an impact next season?

A (MR): "We're so proud of our young people." He touted the GCL and Dominican teams in addition to the Potomac team. He explained how the team was ranked 28 when he got there and it was #8 last year and hopes to go higher.

A (JB): Jordan Zimmermann. "[He's] the one prospect that we have that the 29 other teams call us on all the time. We feel he has the potential to be a pitcher that goes into our rotation right out of spring training next year." He then went on to say that he expects Zimmerman AND Martis, who won't be 22 until March, to BOTH be in the rotation, along with Lannan and Balestar, giving the team "four young guys under 23" to man the starting rotation.

C (BF): Again, let's tell the media that the 22-year old prospect, who has logged a total of 187 minor league innings, has the potential to start the season in the rotation next year, already setting the player up for blame when he proves he's not ready and forces whoever is in charge to find a suitable replacement. Zimmerman dominated at Single-A Potomac this year and was pretty good at Double-A Harrisburg. But his K/9 has dropped slightly at each stop up the ladder and his ERA was a run and a half higher at Harrisburg than at Potomac. That's not surprising, but you'd think that a team this bad would let a kid dominate at the Double-A level before forcing him into a job at the major league level where he'll be pitching for a last place team.

Q (Dave at Bottomfeeder Baseball): I asked Bowden some follow-ups regarding the middle infield and injuries. Well, I thought they were questions. Listening to the tape, I was pretty fired up and pretty much barked at him and I interrupted him several times. I was pretty rude, and I did apologize after the show was over. Anyway, what I asked was this: When Bonifacio, Gonzalez and Hernandez all revert to their career minor league numbers, who plays second base? And: Injuries happen, but they happen to Guzman, Johnson, Kearns and Young every year. How do you explain away your history for giving out reward contracts?

A (JB): "I think if you look at the back of Guzman's baseball card, and look at games played in his career, you'll find it's about 148 games on average per year. Obviously, we've had him the two years here in Washington he's been hurt. But for the rest of his career that wasn't the story." Then he went on to describe how he "wants to play the game every single day", he "plays the game hard", he "plays the game right', he's "a shortstop", he has "more hits [this year] than David Wright" and I think there was something in there about saving kitties stuck in trees and helping old ladies cross the street.

"We signed [Nick Johnson] to a deal that was significantly below market value, because we thought it was worth taking the risk in case he was healthy. That one didn't work out."

"We think Emilio Bonifacio has a chance to develop into a player like Luis Castillo, he's got tremendous speed-game changing speed; we like him from the left side. If you take his on base percentage from the left side, and take away all his at bats from the right side, you'll like his on base percentage." Also, he reiterated again that he thinks Bonifacio has "the potential to be a lead-off hitter."

C (BF): So I looked at Guzman's baseball card, or the electronic equivalent. In nine seasons, Guz has played 1165 (through Sunday), for an average of 129 games per year. Bowden was only 20 games or so per year off. In fact, he's had exactly two season where he's played in at least 148 games, 2000 and 2002. Since he turned 28, Guzman has played in 182 games in three seasons. HE missed all of 2006, appeared in 46 games in 2007, and 136 out of 156 this season. Saying Guzman has averaged that many games a year is simply blowing smoke. Even in his previously "best" season, 2001 (when he inexplicably received enough MVP votes to rank 16th),he only played 118 games with an OPS+ of 110. He is clearly, at age 30, having his best statistical season, and it's still only worth an OPS+ of 104, barely above average. As he regresses to his career numbers (.269/.307/.386), his "reward" contract will continue to be an albatross. At least he owned up to Johnson's contract being a mistake. He completely ignored Dmitri Young's contract.

By the way, Wright has one more hit than Guzman this season, for what that's worth. His OBP is also 40 points higher, has hit 24 more home runs and driven in 64 more. He also has 9 more steals. Talk about cherry-picking stats, Mr. Bowden.

Bonifacio, in his short big league career, has LH/RH splits of .270/.341/.339 and .150/.167/.275. Considering his major league left-handed splits are about the same as his career total minor league numbers, the difference in the minors has got to be even worse. This is a guy that shouldn't be hitting right handed. Of course Bowden would want to "take away all his at bats from the right side." Look, Luis Castillo is a very good singles hitter and had great speed earlier in his career. But again, he's only had three seasons in his career where his OPS+ was over 100. That makes him serviceable, not an all-star.

Q (FJB): After brown-nosing Charlie Slowes, then kissing Bowden's butt a little bit for hitting on Redding and Perez, he then dropped the hammer. "I look at what you did in Arizona...where you had the crystal ball", etc. ad nauseum. "I see you as a future GM in the league. My question for you is that something you want, to be a General Manager at some point in your career?"

A (MR): "The short answer is yes, I have visions of heading up and organization in the future. But for now, I'm really excited about what we're doing here. We've got great leadership here. We're going in the right direction. We're leaps and bounds ahead of where we were in Arizona in their second year of existence." "We've got great leadership with the Lerner family, and Stan Kasten and with Jim...what we've done here since June of '06...is second to none." "We're the youngest team in the major leagues right now. We're fast, we're athletic, we're exciting to watch. We need a few tweaks here and there and we need patience from our fans." "If you like what we did in Arizona, wait a year or two and you'll love it here in Washington."

C (BF): This was Steven's direct attack to Bowden, and probably what got him worked up enough to confront us after the program. But there's no denying that Rizzo knows what he's doing. The draft is not a crapshoot in his hands. He will make a fine GM someday, let's just hope it's not in Seattle or Philadelphia or New York next season.

Q (BF Staff Photographer Cheryl Nichols): How do you educate a fan base that might not be the most sophisticated baseball fan base, get them to invest and be patient, but is dying for a winning baseball team, and keep them form giving up and abandoning the team because the major league product is so poor right now?

A (JB): "More things like coming out here, talking to fans, talking to the media, answering emails and letters from fans. We've been very up-front and honest with them from the very beginning." Certainly we all understand frustration, we all want to win. But when you do win, you don't want to have to break the team down, you want to be able to sustain the winning, like Atlanta did for 14 years, and that's the blueprint we have."

C (BF): I don't know. I'd probably be happy with the Marlins formula of win the World Series, tear down and suck for four years, win the World Series.

Q (Unidentified): Can Roger Bernadina emerge? Can he start next year?

A (JB): "No question. Roger hit over .320 at both Double-A and Triple-A this year. He stole over 40 bases for the second consecutive year. Although at time he might have some bad jumps or angles on balls, he runs a lot of baseballs down. He's got a good arm, he's very athletic. He needs an opportunity at this level to see what he can do. To say that he fits in talent-wise among our other young outfielders, absolutely. It's just a matter of opportunity for him."

C (BF): I would not be shocked to see Bernadina in centerfield next year, with Milledge in left and Dukes in right. Bernadina is a quality outfielder and did hit very well this season. 2007 he hit a combined .259/.338/.356 primarily in Harrisburg. He's just 24, and you have to figure next year in spring training will be his best opportunity to win a job in the major leagues. If Justin Maxwell come into spring training healthy, the two of these kids will be interesting to watch try to win a job from each other.

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And that's how the Q&A ended. Steven and I did spend some time with Mr. Rizzo, Mr. Bowden and Mr. Kasten after the program. Steven has some very detailed posts on the conversations if you're interested (like you haven't seen them yet). They were all very open with their time, and I appreciated each of them taking the time to chat us up.

Being a fan blogger is a difficult thing at times. We're part fan, part media. We're allowed at some events and not at others. The years at RFK we actually were afforded press box credentials on occasion, but since the move that resource has dried up. But having the team president, GM and Ass't GM available to the public in this type of forum is a unique opportunity, and I only wish it happened more than just once a season, but certainly thankful it happened this once.

There are some folks in baseball that think bloggers hide in their mother's basements, taking the team to task anonymously and do nothing but criticize ownership, management and the players. There are others in the business that realize that the new media isn't going away, that anyone with a computer and the interest can act as correspondent or columnist, and embrace their ideas and opinions. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to be able to evaluate and analyze performance, or to project future performance.

Some people think if you don't see a player in person, interact with them, have personal intimate knowledge of them that you can't truly be able to gauge their performance and have some knowledge-based projection of future performance. They are wrong. That's one of the most important functions of fan blogs. We're the media watchdogs of this generation. Newspaper columnists used to serve that function, but anymore the mainstream media is a partner with the team in order to sell the team and to sell copy, that is is the paper even dedicates the resources to cover the team in the first place.

So again, thanks to the Washington Nationals for appearing in this forum and taking questions from their stockholders (the fans) and from the new media watchdogs. We may not agree on some (a lot) of things, but one thing I (and the others in the Natosphere) share with the Nationals is the passion and desire for the team to win. One of the last things Mr. Kasten said to me, when I mentioned that I do this because I want the team to be a winner, is: "That's where people are wrong. As much as you think you want the team to win, we (the team) want it that much more." Both entities want to win for different reasons though, and that's where Mr. Kasten might be missing it. The team wants to win for monetary and professional glory. The fans want to win for civic pride. Which goal is loftier?

Bowden and Rizzo Q&A Post Mortem (Part 1)

If you want to see the Tale of the Tape, head on over to Fire Jim Bowden. The following is Part 1 of a condensed, excerpted and analyzed pseudo-transcript and review of the proceedings held Friday at the ESPN Zone in downtown DC.

If you haven't heard yet (and if you're reading this blog, how in the world?), Friday at the ESPN Zone Washington Nationals GM Jim Bowden and Assistant GM Mike Rizzo appeared and took Q&A from fans and bloggers. It was widely anticipated and quite surprising that the team's GM and Assistant GM, a man most definitely on the hot seat and the most logical choice to take his place, appeared in the same place at the same time and took questions in the same forum from the public.

Anyway, I'll paraphrase the questions (and description of the questioner) since most of them were rambling and disjointed, provide the pertinent parts of the answers, and them some commentary on the responses. Q (Question), A (Answer) and C (Commentary).

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Intro by moderator Charlie Slowes.

Q (by Charlie): So the Nats' Triple-A franchise moving to Syracuse?

A (Jim Bowden): Some generally meaningless banter about Syracuse, the facilities, and the town, especially noting its proximity to DC "only an hour plane fight away".

C: (Bottomfeeder): Everyone knows that an organization's top prospects generally finish their seasoning at Double-A, and that today Triple-A is filled with Four-A guys and emergency injury replacements. Where the Nats affiliate with is pretty immaterial, except for how fast they can get to DC when needed.

Q (CS): To Rizzo: So you're getting ready for next season already, looking at free agents and next year's draft?

A (Mike Rizzo): "It's a very active part of the season, actually." They're putting things together in Viera, have guys going to Arizona for the fall league. "Baseball is a 12 month a year working environment now."

C (BF): Natch. We had some softballs lobbed early.

Q: (CS): Looking at young players, how 'bout that Anderson Hernandez (this would be a constant theme)? He was a lousy hitter in the Mets Triple-A this year but looks like a "completely" different hitter with the Nats?

A: (JB): "A year ago he led the PCL in hits, but he was in a difficult situation being behind Jose Reyes." "Hard to stay motivated" being sent back down after leading a league in hits [ed. also in at bats. He's Cristian Guzman light].

C (BF): Here are Anderson Hernandez' stats as a major leaguer. Here are his stats as a minor leaguer. Does he think we don't have access to these numbers? He's a lifetime .264/.310/.354 hitter in eight seasons and 3500 at bats in the minor leagues. I'm not cherry-picking here. This is his career. And he's not young anymore, he'll be 26 in spring training. Rizzo compared him (favorably) to Adam Everett.

Q (CS): How important is September for young players?

A (JB): You have to take into account the situation. Hitting against Brandon Webb is different from hitting against another call up.

Q (self-described season ticket holder from the beginning): Very disappointed in the season. Why did we bring older free agents in that failed rather than have the young guys, that eventually played anyway, up from the beginning. Wouldn't it be better to sign one huge free agent than sign all these re-treats?

A (JB): "One thing we don't want to do is rush a player to the big leagues" before he's ready. In the case of Flores, they thought he needed to have another "half-year" in Triple-A. Thought they could trade LoDuca if he had hit. "In the case of Mackowiak, of course that didn't work, but if you don't sign Mackowiak, you also don't get Willie Harris, you don't get Odalis Perez, and when you sign those kind of guys in the $850 (K) to $1.5 (MM)-ers, you're not going to hit on all of them. If you were going to hit on all of them, they're not going get $850K." As for signing one big guy, it would have to be in the model they were looking for, in his 20s, someone they could lock up for 5-6 years, that will "be part of it when we're ready to win."

C (BF): Of all the things said today, this was one of the most illuminating and confusing. Bowden said, "...if you don't sign Mackowiak, you also don't get Willie Harris," et al. We all get the idea that the team wanted to put as little money as possible into the major league team this past off-season. The only guy they signed to a legitimate major league contract was LoDuca. That's why Bowden could show some success witht he free agents. Basically, and he admits to it, it's a "throw it against the wall as see what sticks" approach. Sign a bunch of low-prices retreats. See who hits (or gets people out). Don't get saddled with a 4 or 5 year bad contract (like they did with Guzman originally). Willie Harris found a little pop, but has done essentially what he did in Atlanta last year. Odalis Perez is a 4.25 ERA guy that can look real good one night and terrible his next start.

The original questioner included guys like Maxwell and Daniel and some others, but the real question here is about Flores. What I'm about to say may make some close friends of mine angry, but Bowden was essentially correct about Flores. If they could have had someone else healthy this season to catch, Flores would have been the better for spending the year in Triple-A. Hitting, he's as ready as he's gonna be. But game calling, and game managing, he's got a LOT to learn still. Does that mean he shouldn't have been learning to do that here, like Milledge and Dukes (and yes, Zimmerman) have been given the luxury? We can have that argument all night. But Flores would have been a better catcher on the big league lever next year with a year of tutelage instead of having to produce here during on-the-job training. Unfortunately, they picked the wrong guys to carry the water this year, signing LoDuca and Estrada, and wasted $6M dollars in the process, and still had to rush Flores up anyway.

Q (Fire Jim Bowden): How did you let Aaron Crow go for less than $1M (severely paraphrased)?

A (JB): "We're not going to be (hemmed?) into a marketplace, there's a dollar value for players to sign, Brain Matusz [ed. Orioles #1 draft pick] was taken with the fourth pick in the draft and at the end of the day we offered more money than what Matusz got. We also had the leverage to get the 9-B [compensation pick] if we don't sign the pick for next year." He said it would have been irresponsible to give a draft pick everything he wanted, that it would be a bad precedent.

A (MR): It costs us 10 month of developing a player. We negotiated in good faith, but couldn't come to an agreement with the player. But we have two picks in the top 10 next year.

C (BF): My bottom-line opinion on this, after hearing everything in the past, and this session Friday, and other conversations I've had with "baseball people", is that Kasten drew the line in the sand that night and said, "ENOUGH." He was willing to go over slot, but not ridiculously so, and not set a precedent for this type of last minute extortion by over-bearing agents. The Nats have gone a long way to make Mr. Hendricks and Aaron Crow out to be the bad guy in this, but I really think the team ultimately said that this was their gig, via con dios, and good luck in independent ball. Next year's the kicker though, because if they can't sign the 9-A pick, they lose it. And for a team that will already have one of the top three picks in the draft to sign, it's going to be a tall order. They might be on the hook for $10-15 MM in bonus money for just two picks next season, depending on the guidelines by MLB and the market once it develops.

Q (CS): How difficult were the 11th hour negotiations? How is it good for the player to go to the independent leagues?

A: (MR): We "hope Crow has a great year", but it cost him a year of eligibility, and it's going to be difficult for him to recoup that loss.

Q (CS): Didn't the player lose more than the team?

A (JB): People say we walked away, the player walked away too. "We promised a September call-up", etc. The player lost more than the team did.

C (BF): It's certainly debatable as to who lost more in this. Crow is an exceptional talent, and will be right back in the top 10 in next year's draft. He walked away from almost $4M though, and that was guaranteed, the only guaranteed money he would see until he made the bigs. I guess when the season ticket renewal numbers come out we'll have a better idea how it hurt the team, because I think the Crow fiasco hurt the team more in fan relations than baseball-wise. Trying to get the average fan to pay for a sub-standard major league product touting a build-from-within strategy is fine AS LONG AS YOU SIGN YOUR PICKS. Ask educated fans what their number one pet peeve with the organization was this year, and it's gonna be Crow.

Q (4-year season ticket holder): When you scout, do base decisions on who represents the player?

A (MR): Part of the equation, but not a deciding factor. "We never walk away from a particular agent."

C (BF): Except maybe Mr. Hendricks now. As Keith Jackson was fond of saying "These two teams just plain don't like each other."

Q (Unidentified Fan): What do you look at for the starting outfield next year?

A: (MR): Competition. Dukes, Milledge and Kearns. Expecting Kearns to be the player he was two-three years ago.

A (JB): We'll look at trades, and "we'd love to have a 4-hole hitter." If we had a little more production the kids would be better off. "As for how the outfield is lined up, Manny's gotta evaluate how everything is set up defensively, maybe find out if there's an area, without getting specific in one of the three spots, maybe we have to make an outfield position change to upgrade the defense without getting specific."

C (BF): Since Bowden wouldn't be specific, let me be: Milledge is moving to left and Dukes is playing center next year. Or maybe Bernadina in center and Dukes in right. How no one in the mainstream picked up on this and reported is shocking. Milledge has plenty of talent, but he's proving that he has a hard time reading the ball off the bat, especially balls hit right at him. He makes up for some of this in his athleticism, but he's been pretty lousy in center field this season. Has it hurt this year? No. The team would have lost 95 games regardless. But if Milledge and Dukes are going to be part of the long-term solution here, they have to find out where each is going to play before they can build around them. Dukes is a singular talent, and his cannon in right is perfect. I can't even put Kearns into the discussion. If his atrocious performance this season was all due to the injury and he comes back and is a 20 homer/.350OBP guy, super. There's a place in this league, and probably on this team for a guy like that. Let's just say we need to see it first.

Q (CS): You guys had a lot of injuries. How do you know what a guy is going to give you the following year (re: Kearns, Johnson)?

A (JB): "We have to evaluate what the doctors and the medical people think about their chance of coming back. "Those are tough judgments to make."

C (BF): Basically, he said, "You never know." I'm not sure if this was a veiled reference to Kearns, Johnson, or in general. The team is saddled with two contracts at first base that cannot stay on the field at this point in their careers in Johnson and Young. They need production at first, for the time being so that this team doesn't look like a glorified Triple-A team, and for the future. Marrero's broken foot this year didn't help in that evaluation process. Wonder if Pedro Alvarez ends back up in next year's draft?

Q (Full-season ticket holder): The team stunk this year and is getting worse? Why should we continue to sink more money into a lousy product?

A (JB): "One of our goals...is to try get a big bat in the line-up." "Ideally we'd like to have a controlled player, in his 20s , that can be part of the solution."

C (BF): They're going to try to sign Adam Dunn. Really, it's a no-brainer. If Jim Bowden isn't released from service, Adam Dunn will be a Washington National in 2009.

Q (Unidentified Fan): Are you going to use some of your minor league outfield talent as trade bait?

A (JB): "One of the reasons you build up your minors system is so you can make a deal to get an impact player."

C (BF): True. But this team has no reason to be trading any of its minor league talent until it's also ready to invest in select free agents and sign their own home-grown stars to long-term contracts. We're only a very short time into a long, patience-required building process.

Q (Unidentified): We've become much better defensively in the last 30 days with the acquisitions of Alberto Gonzalez, Emilio Bonifacio and Anderson Hernandez.

Q (CS): Does this give you flexibility in the infield?

A (JB): "We feel pretty blessed that if [Guzman] were to go down for a while, we've got a Gonzalez, Anderson even a Bonifacio, we've got three guys that can play the position."

C (BF): Yes all three CAN play the position. So can Pete Orr. So can Ronnie Belliard. So can Willie Harris. I imagine Zim would LOVE the opportunity. Here's the thing to remember here about our new middle infield help: NONE OF THEM HAVE HIT AT THE MINOR LEAGUE LEVEL. Bonifaco is the most qualified. .285/.340/.362, with his defense and speed, could turn out to be a real good player. But he's not really suited for the job -- lead-off hitter -- that Bowden keeps wanting to place him in. As a number 8 hitter, Bonifacio would be a much more palatable option.

How about we stop pretenting Milledge is going to be a power hitter and let him hit lead-off. He's fast, showed in the minors to have a good OBP (.376 in 1200 ABs), and would have decent pop from that spot as well. I'm just saying. We already went over Anderson's track record. And let me say this about Alberto Gonzalez: I LOVE this guy. He's yet another Rizzo guy, originally signed by the D-Backs in 2002 as a minor league free agent. He's probably got the best range and arm of anyone in the major leagues--RIGHT NOW. But he can't hit a lick. .276/.327/.383 in 1800 minor league at bats just doesn't project. He's a classic glove guy. Again, that would be real valuable on a contending team. And I guess since Guzman is only going to get worse, Gonzalez might stick around to be used in that capacity. But should catastrophe hit Guzman again, Gonzalez couldn't save anywhere near the amount of runs on defense that he would cost the team on offense. There's a reason the Yankees let him go despite having no heir apparent for Jeter. Oh, and Gonzalez will be 26 in the spring too. These guys aren't as young as they are being made out to be.

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THUS ENDS PART ONE. I've had a long day, and tomorrow will be longer. I will post Part Deux on Monday's off-day. It's the part where I raise my voice to the GM, then apologize for it. Should be great entertainment for all.

GB&U: Oh, there was a game today, too

RESULT: Nats fall to Padres 11-6 in 14 innings.

GOOD: Roger Bernadina. 3-for-5 with a walk, RBI and 2 stolen bases. Lastings Milledge. 3-for-6 with a walk. 7/8ths of the Bullpen. They got 7 innings out of 7 relievers until Speigner took over.

BAD: Collin Balestar. Had trouble spotting anything but the fastball. 5 IP, 5 ERs on 9 hits -- but no walks. This was one of those occasions where he had to throw strikes with the fastball cause he couldn't located anything else, and they were teeing off on him. His fastball was pretty flat too.

UGLY: Levale Speigner. Guess it's safe to say at this point he isn't part of The Plan (tm). 2 IP, 5 ERs on 4 hits and 2 BBs.

NEXT GAME: Later today, 7:10 pm start. John Lannan against Chris Young. Interesting pitching match-up.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: I know i promised the good parts of the transcript of today's Q&A with Jim Bowden and Mike Rizzo, but 14 innings has taken its toll. I will get it posted tomorrow, I promise. I'll leave you with this nugget though: Bowden admitted Rob Mackowiak was a bust, in the context of "you win some, you lose some" when it comes to signing inexpensive free agents. Remember Rob Mackowiak?

Meet The (Pseudo) Press

Today was the big day: GM Jim Bowden and Assistant GM Mike Rizzo took a Q&A from Nats fans at the ESPNZone downtown. I'll have some transcript highlights later after tonight's game, but wanted to offer some initial reaction to the Q&A and overall general impressions of the performance of the Nationals front office.

The very first question came from a season ticket holder from day one, and was to the effect of: Why should I pay my money to see this product when it's steadily gotten worse every year? THAT'S the type of day it was. There were some softballs lobbed up, and some casual fan questions like: What would the team's record have been without all the injuries (Bowden's response: 82-80!), but for the most part, the fan (and blogger) questions were direct, informed and pointed.

Bowden was Bowden. His answers were what we've come accustomed to hearing, and we really didn't learn much new from him. Of the Crow fiasco, he said that the team was disappointed, but the team needed to be responsible and eventually let the player go. There was more blame shifted to Mr. Hendricks, Crow's agent, and how the player was hurt more walking away because of the relatively small financial difference than the team was. He touted all three recent middle infield acquisitions as contributors on the major league level despite less-than-stellar minor league numbers.

He defended how the team has operated in the media, stating how the team has been up-front about how they were going to re-build. He defended their selective approach to free agency, going after the Tim Redding/Odalis Perez/Willie Harris types, saying that if you miss with one of them you're only costing the team $850K-$2MM, as opposed to big ticket busts like Barry Zito or Carlos Silva. He also said, in response to a question about signing LoDuca and Estrada, that the team doesn't want to rush any of it's top talent before it's ready and risk doing the player harm instead of good, which is why he signed those two guys in the off-season.

Rizzo performed well in the select questions that were directed to him. He was pretty blunt about Crow being the player they wanted. He explained how in Arizona, where he was previously, they had a specific way of scouting and drafting, and that he was trying to instill that here. He thinks the Nats are way ahead of where Arizona was when he started there. He thinks the team is going about things "the right way" and some of the talent they have stock-piled will be ready soon, and hopefully at the same time.

Then, when things were done, Steven from Fire Jim Bowden and I had a chance to speak with Mr. Rizzo first, then Mr. Bowden and eventually Team President Stan Kasten, who did not take Q&A during the main part. The conversations were all particularly interesting and intriguing on many levels. There was not much new information exchanged necessarily, but insight into each man's thought process about the game, the team, the fans, the main-stream media, and the functions and responsibilies of fan bloggers.

I will have transcript excerpts and commentary posted late after tonight's game.

One baseball related item: Jake Peavy has been scratched from tonight's start. The Padres offer Dirk Hayhurst, a right-hander from Canton, Ohio, in his place. Hayhurst has been up since late August and is 0-2 with a 8.49 ERA in 11.2 innings.

My Question for Jim Bowden and Mike Rizzo

I am attending the Q&A with Washington Nationals GM Jim Bowden and Assistant GM Mike Rizzo today at the downtown ESPN Zone at 12:00 noon. It should be a rousing good time.

In advance, here is the question I plan to ask of them:

With notable exception, the DC baseball fan base is still relatively unsophisticated. While educated fans know, despite the Aaron Crow fiasco, how much time, energy and money is going into rebuilding a minor league system that was decimated by years of neglect while MLB was steward of the franchise, how do you explain to the casual fan -- the ones that pay to see THIS team you've assembled: journeymen starting pitchers, relief pitchers dicarded from other organizations and career back-up position players elevated to starters here -- the lack of credible major league talent on the field, when do you envision the organization investing in the MAJOR LEAGUE roster, and, projecting a bit, where do you see this team's most pressing needs once some of the home-grown talent that you've hand-selected becomes major league ready?

If someone beats me to this question, I'll just ask him about the Manny wig. Or maybe, the last time he spoke to Kevin Towers

:-)

See you all in a couple hours.

Poor Jason Bergmann

Sources tell me that at the ESPN Zone function today where Jason Bergmann appeared, took fan questions and signed autographs, only five Nats fans showed up. Bergy's had his share of disappointments this season, but this had to be tough today.

This is the first of these lunchtime events I've missed, and usually there's been 50-75 people in attendance. Granted, these were all while school was still out, and despite public reports, brought all types of fans out to the event. Maybe Mr. Oppenheim was closer to the truth than I was willing to admit.

GM Jim Bowden and Ass't GM Mike Rizzo are scheduled to appear Friday at ESPN Zone as previously mentioned (with fake transcript) here. It promises to be must-see tv. I wouldn't miss it for the world. And if only five people come out for that, then that just means more face time for me!

State of the Nationals?

http://www.espnzone.com/washingtondc/

Mark your calendars for Friday, September 19th at 12 p.m., and join us at ESPN Zone for the 2008 State of the Nationals address.

Nationals General Manager Jim Bowden and Assistant GM and VP of Baseball Operations Mike Rizzo will address the Nationals’ current season, the Nats’ off-season plans, and the organization’s ongoing development. Fans will be invited to ask questions of Bowden and Rizzo throughout the event, gaining insight in the future of the hometown team.

Boy, oh boy, oh boy. I can't wait for this. Dead men know no fear? I have to imagine EVERYONE from the Natosphere will be in attendance. Here's a little excerpt from the possible transcript:

Charlie Slowes: OK, let's open it up to some questions. In the back here...

Bottomfeeder Baseball: Jim, do you understand how foolish you looked in the Manny Ramirez wig?

Charlie: BANG, ZOOM! Let's get another one...

Fire Jim Bowden: Jim, do you like my t-shirt?

Charlie: UN-BEE-LIEVABLE!!! Next...

We've Got Heart: Jim, did you know that Luis Ayala has a win and six saves in seven tries for a division leading team, and he was passed over for the closer's job here--TWICE???

Charlie: How about one from the kids:

Dancing Boy: Mr Rizzo, Will you be our new G.M.?

Charlie: Oops. How about another one from our younger fans?

Fick Fans: Mr. Bowden, you broke our hearts. BRING BACK FICK!!!

Charlie: BANG, ZOOM! One more...

Nats 320: Jim, I have an Unofficial Poll of all the readers of My Blog and EVERYONE is re-upping their Season's Tickets. By the way, can I have the African Queen pose with you for a picture?

Charlie: Does anyone have a question for Mike? Over here...

NFA: Say the team did sign Aaron Crow. Would he have been assigned to one of the GCL teams, Vermont, Potomac, Hagerstown, Harrisburg, Columbus or Washington? Would he have played in the Instructional League? The Arizona Fall League? Or one of the Latin American Winter Leagues?

Charlie: WOW! Any more? OK, over here...

Mr. Irrelevant: Isn't the Redskins pre-game on yet?

Charlie: Yikes! That's all the time we have for today folks. Let's go get another Curly W for the books!!!

Next Friday cannot come soon enough. See you all there!

More Crow Post-Mortem

GM Jim Bowden's pathetic attempt at spin today is a shoddy attempt at damage control. The crocodile tears he shed for the Post's Chico Harlan may sway the casual fan, but the sheer hubris and fortitude it took for him to detail the negotiations in the press like this, regardless if you believe him or not (I do not), is incredible. It is unprofessional and immature to the extreme. It's no wonder many of his peers don't return his phone calls. They know anything they say can and will be held against them in the court of public opinion. Bowden's "interview" with the Post today was a disgusting attempt to shift blame to the player and his agent, and the disrespect he shows Crow and his father (Bowden repeatedly refers to him as "the father", not by name) is shameful and embarrassing.

But we now know the score, and here's the first independent analysis of yesterday's debacle, and it ain't pretty.

Keith Law, of Scouts, Inc. and ESPN.com, a former member of the Toronto Blue Jays front office and former writer for Baseball Prospectus knows the draft. It's what he does. And his independent opinion: Bowden blew it. Not just with Crow, but the whole draft. Here's the sad indictment from his most recent column.

"The Nationals' failure to sign Aaron Crow is yet another strike against the regime of embattled general manager Jim Bowden, whose name has popped up in the investigation into embezzlement of signing bonuses in Latin America.

In full-on spin mode, Bowden now is claiming that Crow and his advisors didn't give the Nationals any indication before the draft what it might take for Crow to sign (even though this information was common knowledge in the industry) and didn't provide a dollar figure until Aug. 12. If the Nationals genuinely didn't know what Crow wanted, it was either willful ignorance or the worst case of a signability analysis I've ever seen. And if they weren't willing to go much over slot, they could have just taken Arizona State's Brett Wallace (taken by the Cardinals at No. 13) or Long Beach (Calif.) high school hitter Aaron Hicks (taken by the Twins at No. 14), signed either for slot at No. 9 and made the plausible argument that they took the best player available.

The Nationals didn't do anything later in their draft to salvage this misstep. They gave back-of-the-first-round money to outfielder J.P. Ramirez (selected in the 15th round, 451st overall), who didn't make my top 75 prospects for the draft and ranked No. 155 on Baseball America's list (roughly a fourth/fifth rounder). They signed just two prospects off my top 75, none higher than catcher Adrian Nieto at No. 40, and nobody in Baseball America's top 50.

It's not a Houston 2007 disaster -- where the Astros didn't have picks in the first and second rounds, then failed to sign their third- and fourth-rounders -- but it's a significant problem for a team whose farm system was gutted under years of MLB-state ownership. The Nationals now will have two picks in the top 10 next year, an extremely expensive proposition, and in a draft class that is no stronger than this one. (In fact, a rough cut at the top 10 prospects for next year's draft would include at least five that I expect will be advised by Scott Boras: Stephen Strasburg, Grant Green, Dustin Ackley, Andy Oliver and Donovan Tate.)

It's a bad outcome for a franchise that needed another good draft to continue the farm system's comeback, which has already had unforeseen setbacks this year with the struggles of their top two picks from 2007, Ross Detwiler and Josh Smoker. "

Wow. This isn't one of us saying it. Although each of us that have a blog the last 24 hours have said all of this ourselves--except probably detailing just how much was too much money spent on Ramirez and Jones. So not only did the Nats not sign their first round pick, but they gave first round money to a 15th round pick that isn't in anyone's top 75 and projects as a fifth outfielder.

"Worst case of a signability analysis I've [Keith Law] ever seen."

Fire Jim Bowden.

GB&U: Failed Draft Pick Signing Edition

RESULT: Nats fail to sign first round draft pick RHP Aaron Crow, now under contract to the Fort Worth Cats.

GOOD: I fail to see the good out of all of this, unless it is the last nail in Jim Bowden's coffin. Actually, the real good of this is that the Nats will definitely have two of the top dozen picks in next year's draft, hopefully with Rizzo at the helm and Bowden far, far away.

How can a team dedicated to rebuilding through the draft fail to sign its most important pick? Moreover: How can a team draft a player that all along had no inclination of coming to DC, when there are multiple needs throughout the organization, such as:

1) Quality Middle Infield Prospects;

2) Power, especially at first base;

3) Overall depth.

It's clear that Crow never wanted to play for Washington, and he's taking a very big risk to his future to avoid that fate. He ultimately turned down an awful lot of money to play independent ball, trying to avoid injury, and re-enter the draft next year. Godspeed, Mr. Crow.

BAD: This really has to be the last straw for Bowden. He gets up on the podium on draft day, pronounces Crow is the next great National first-round draft pick, announces very clearly that the organization has given him all the tools necessary to have a successful draft, then doesn't sign the player over what will ultimately be less than $1M. Granted, that's a lot of money to you and me, but shouldn't be what stands in the way of getting your first round draft pick signed.

UGLY: The reaction around the Natosphere has been anger, disappointment, apathy and disgust. There's a real feeling among Nats fans that there's little direction, no cohesiveness and a general distrust of management right now, from the top (the Larners) all the way down to the field manager. For a team and organization that's becoming the butt of jokes across the league, this is the icing on a nasty tasting cake.

GAME RELATED CONTENT: Oh, by the way, the current team on the field lost their eighth game in a row last night, and now the team's best pitcher is talking in veiled messages at his center fielder.

From the Post's game story: "Said Redding, after it was done: "The most frustrating is when you know the inning should have been over and you give up runs to guys who shouldn't have been at the plate. "

It was a poor play on Milledge's fault, but for crying out loud, it was in the FIFTH FREAKING INNING. If this team could score more than three runs a games (a good night these days), you wouldn't be having this conversation.

NEXT GAME: Nats go for nine in a row tonight against the Rocks. Hard Luck John Lannan (6-11, 3.40) against old Nat Livan Hernandez (10-9, 5.94). Hernandez has been the easiest starting pitcher to get a hit off of in the Major Leagues this year. Over/under tonight for the Nats? I'll set it at 6.5.