More Crow Post-Mortem

GM Jim Bowden's pathetic attempt at spin today is a shoddy attempt at damage control. The crocodile tears he shed for the Post's Chico Harlan may sway the casual fan, but the sheer hubris and fortitude it took for him to detail the negotiations in the press like this, regardless if you believe him or not (I do not), is incredible. It is unprofessional and immature to the extreme. It's no wonder many of his peers don't return his phone calls. They know anything they say can and will be held against them in the court of public opinion. Bowden's "interview" with the Post today was a disgusting attempt to shift blame to the player and his agent, and the disrespect he shows Crow and his father (Bowden repeatedly refers to him as "the father", not by name) is shameful and embarrassing.

But we now know the score, and here's the first independent analysis of yesterday's debacle, and it ain't pretty.

Keith Law, of Scouts, Inc. and ESPN.com, a former member of the Toronto Blue Jays front office and former writer for Baseball Prospectus knows the draft. It's what he does. And his independent opinion: Bowden blew it. Not just with Crow, but the whole draft. Here's the sad indictment from his most recent column.

"The Nationals' failure to sign Aaron Crow is yet another strike against the regime of embattled general manager Jim Bowden, whose name has popped up in the investigation into embezzlement of signing bonuses in Latin America.

In full-on spin mode, Bowden now is claiming that Crow and his advisors didn't give the Nationals any indication before the draft what it might take for Crow to sign (even though this information was common knowledge in the industry) and didn't provide a dollar figure until Aug. 12. If the Nationals genuinely didn't know what Crow wanted, it was either willful ignorance or the worst case of a signability analysis I've ever seen. And if they weren't willing to go much over slot, they could have just taken Arizona State's Brett Wallace (taken by the Cardinals at No. 13) or Long Beach (Calif.) high school hitter Aaron Hicks (taken by the Twins at No. 14), signed either for slot at No. 9 and made the plausible argument that they took the best player available.

The Nationals didn't do anything later in their draft to salvage this misstep. They gave back-of-the-first-round money to outfielder J.P. Ramirez (selected in the 15th round, 451st overall), who didn't make my top 75 prospects for the draft and ranked No. 155 on Baseball America's list (roughly a fourth/fifth rounder). They signed just two prospects off my top 75, none higher than catcher Adrian Nieto at No. 40, and nobody in Baseball America's top 50.

It's not a Houston 2007 disaster -- where the Astros didn't have picks in the first and second rounds, then failed to sign their third- and fourth-rounders -- but it's a significant problem for a team whose farm system was gutted under years of MLB-state ownership. The Nationals now will have two picks in the top 10 next year, an extremely expensive proposition, and in a draft class that is no stronger than this one. (In fact, a rough cut at the top 10 prospects for next year's draft would include at least five that I expect will be advised by Scott Boras: Stephen Strasburg, Grant Green, Dustin Ackley, Andy Oliver and Donovan Tate.)

It's a bad outcome for a franchise that needed another good draft to continue the farm system's comeback, which has already had unforeseen setbacks this year with the struggles of their top two picks from 2007, Ross Detwiler and Josh Smoker. "

Wow. This isn't one of us saying it. Although each of us that have a blog the last 24 hours have said all of this ourselves--except probably detailing just how much was too much money spent on Ramirez and Jones. So not only did the Nats not sign their first round pick, but they gave first round money to a 15th round pick that isn't in anyone's top 75 and projects as a fifth outfielder.

"Worst case of a signability analysis I've [Keith Law] ever seen."

Fire Jim Bowden.

GB&U: Failed Draft Pick Signing Edition

RESULT: Nats fail to sign first round draft pick RHP Aaron Crow, now under contract to the Fort Worth Cats.

GOOD: I fail to see the good out of all of this, unless it is the last nail in Jim Bowden's coffin. Actually, the real good of this is that the Nats will definitely have two of the top dozen picks in next year's draft, hopefully with Rizzo at the helm and Bowden far, far away.

How can a team dedicated to rebuilding through the draft fail to sign its most important pick? Moreover: How can a team draft a player that all along had no inclination of coming to DC, when there are multiple needs throughout the organization, such as:

1) Quality Middle Infield Prospects;

2) Power, especially at first base;

3) Overall depth.

It's clear that Crow never wanted to play for Washington, and he's taking a very big risk to his future to avoid that fate. He ultimately turned down an awful lot of money to play independent ball, trying to avoid injury, and re-enter the draft next year. Godspeed, Mr. Crow.

BAD: This really has to be the last straw for Bowden. He gets up on the podium on draft day, pronounces Crow is the next great National first-round draft pick, announces very clearly that the organization has given him all the tools necessary to have a successful draft, then doesn't sign the player over what will ultimately be less than $1M. Granted, that's a lot of money to you and me, but shouldn't be what stands in the way of getting your first round draft pick signed.

UGLY: The reaction around the Natosphere has been anger, disappointment, apathy and disgust. There's a real feeling among Nats fans that there's little direction, no cohesiveness and a general distrust of management right now, from the top (the Larners) all the way down to the field manager. For a team and organization that's becoming the butt of jokes across the league, this is the icing on a nasty tasting cake.

GAME RELATED CONTENT: Oh, by the way, the current team on the field lost their eighth game in a row last night, and now the team's best pitcher is talking in veiled messages at his center fielder.

From the Post's game story: "Said Redding, after it was done: "The most frustrating is when you know the inning should have been over and you give up runs to guys who shouldn't have been at the plate. "

It was a poor play on Milledge's fault, but for crying out loud, it was in the FIFTH FREAKING INNING. If this team could score more than three runs a games (a good night these days), you wouldn't be having this conversation.

NEXT GAME: Nats go for nine in a row tonight against the Rocks. Hard Luck John Lannan (6-11, 3.40) against old Nat Livan Hernandez (10-9, 5.94). Hernandez has been the easiest starting pitcher to get a hit off of in the Major Leagues this year. Over/under tonight for the Nats? I'll set it at 6.5.

So That's It

According to Baseball America's John Manual:

The Nationals signed 15th round pick J.P. Ramirez, a lefthanded-hitting outfielder with a smooth stroke and a Tulane commitment, for $1 million.

Ramirez is a solid consolation prize, but the Nats missed on their top pick. Washington failed to sign Missouri righthander Aaron Crow, according to industry sources. One source indicated the Crow camp, led by his agents the Hendricks Brothers, dropped their demands to $4 million from the $8-$10 million range, and that the Nationals came up from slot to $3.3 million, but that the two sides ran out of time and wiggle room and couldn’t work out a compromise.

So the Nats didn't sign their #1 pick, their prized possession, over $700K? Shocking. This ought to be a heck of a press conference trying to dance their way out of this one. Simply incredible.

"Be patient," they said.

"Our guys know the draft," they said.

"Crow's a front-line, once a generation pitcher," they said.

"Build through the draft and spend once we're competitive," they said.

They lied.

O's Sign Matusz: What's It Mean For Crow?

Here's the story about the Orioles signing first round pick, fourth overall, LHP Brain Matusz out of San Diego.

Here's the pertinent part:

The Orioles and first-round pick Brian Matusz have agreed to terms on a major league deal that would immediately insert him onto the club's 40-man roster and toward the top of the organization's list of pitching prospects, The Sun has learned.

Matusz, a left-hander out of the University of San Diego and the fourth overall pick in June's amateur draft, will receive a $3.2 million bonus.

So what does it mean for the Nats first rounder RHP Aaron Crow? Well, that's quite a bit less bonus money than he's reportedly demanding, but he got the Major League contract. Would Kasten relent if Hendricks lowered the up front bonus money that much? Would Hendricks blink if Kasten ponied up $5M - $7M and not the contract?

This is really fascinating stuff. I haven't seen any other signings yet today, so this could very well be the first domino of the six top-ten picks (and 10 of the top 30) that at the start of the day were still left unsigned.

GB&U: It Comes and It Goes Just as Quickly

RESULT: Nats lose to Brewers 7-1, swept in four-game series.

GOOD: Willie Harris went 2-for-5. Ryan Zimmerman went 2-for-4. Luis Ayala rebounded with a perfect inning pitched. Way to keep your chin up, Luis.

BAD: Garrett Mock. He got pounded in his spot start. 4.2 IP, 4 ERs, 5 hits, 3 BBs, but 9 Ks. That's right, 9 of his 14 outs were strikeouts.

UGLY: The whole darn weekend. Getting swept is never fun, but at least it was against the second best team in the NL and on the road, away from the legions of fans that flock to Nationals Park but apparently don't watch the team on the TV. Plus now the news that a former low-level scout is the head of a major internet gambling ring. Ew.

DRAFT PICKS: At least the Nats inked their third and fourth round draft picks, SS Daniel Espinosa and LHP Graham Hicks, to go along with second round pick OF Destin Hood and recently signed 5th rounder C Adrian Nieto. All that's left is to get the #1 pick, RHP Aaron Crow, to agree to terms. This one's liable to go down to the wire, which is this Friday, August 15, at midnight eastern.

NEXT GAME: The Nats return home to face their division rival New York Mets this week. These are important games for the Mets, who find themselves tied with Florida 2.5 games behind the Phillies in the division and 5.5 games behind Milwaukee for the wild card.

Tomorrow night at 7:10 pm Odalis Perez (5-8, 4.10) takes on Johan Santana (9-7, 2.85) from Nationals Park.

Nats Sign 3rd and 4th Round Picks

It's all starting to come together...here's the team press release. This leaves first round pick RHP Aaron Crow as the only unsigned pick of the top five selections.

NATIONALS AGREE TO TERMS WITH SHORTSTOP DANIEL ESPINOSA & LEFT-HANDED PITCHER GRAHAM HICKS

The Washington Nationals agreed to terms with shortstop Daniel Espinosa and left-handed pitcher Graham Hicks, their third and fourth-round selections in this year’s First-Year Player Draft. Nationals Senior Vice President and General Manager Jim Bowden, Vice President of Baseball Operations and Assistant General Manager Mike Rizzo, and Director of Scouting Dana Brown made this joint announcement.

The 21-year-old Espinosa is a plus defensive infielder who hit .309 with 13 doubles, six triples, four home runs and 37 RBI as a junior this season at Long Beach State (CA), while compiling a .392 on-base percentage and earning an honorable mention nod on the Easton Big West All-Conference Team. Prior to his junior campaign, Espinosa was the starting shortstop and won a silver medal for Team USA in the 2007 Pan American Games.

A two-time All-Big West honoree, he was named the conference’s Freshman of the Year after batting .281 with 19 extra-base hits, 31 runs scored and 23 RBI as a college rookie. He batted .319 with a team-best seven home runs, 44 runs scored, 13 doubles, four triples and 40 RBI as a sophomore. The switch hitter graduated from Mater Dei High School (CA), where he lettered all four years and was twice recognized as an All-League selection. As a high school junior, he was a starter and batted .483 for the 2003 US Youth National Team that won a gold medal in Taiwan.

Hicks, 18, is coming off a spectacular career at George Jenkins High School (FL), which included a 15-2 record and 0.41 ERA with 155 strikeouts in 119.0 innings over his final two seasons. The 6-foot-5 southpaw dominated his competition as a senior, going 8-1 with a 0.24 ERA and earning a spot as a FACA Senior All-Star. He received an All-State honorable mention as a junior, compiling a 9-1 mark with a 0.53 ERA en route to a district title. Hicks led his AAU team to a 2007 national championship in the World Wood Bat Association’s 18-and-under division.

Nats Select Crow With First Round Pick

Washington, DC--With the ninth overall pick in the 2008 Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft, the Washington Nationals selected right-handed pitcher Aaron Crow from the University of Missouri. Nationals Senior Vice President and General Manager Jim Bowden, Vice President of Baseball Operations and Assistant General Manager Mike Rizzo, and Director of Scouting Dana Brown made the announcement at Nationals Park.

“Aaron Crow is a potential top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, who has three solid pitches — including a mid-90s fastball, a quality slider and a changeup — and has exceptional command,” Bowden said. “I give credit to Mike Rizzo, Dana Brown, Bob Boone and our entire scouting staff for once again securing such a remarkable talent with the ninth overall pick in the Draft.” Over his three seasons at Missouri, Crow compiled a 23-8 record with a 3.27 ERA in 52 games -- 46 starts.

Crow has an unusual "hitch" in his motion, but Bowden believes it's something he can succeed with. "We got a lot of different opinions in our organization, and certainly at the end of the day, all of our people were satisfied. No one was red-flagged. At all." Rizzo added, "With stop-action pictures, frame-by-frame, we saw that the arm gets to the power position perfectly on time even with the little 'wrap' that he's got."

"We continue to try to stockpile as many potential number one and number two starters as we can to build this organization into a championship club," Bowden said. "[We] were all in unanimous feeling when it was our turn to select who we should take."

Assistant Manager Mike Rizzo said, "We believe he's an impact pitcher, top of the rotation type, that could be the type of pitcher that would lead us to world series championships down the road."

Crow, 21, was rated the No. 2 pitching prospect (No. 5 overall) and was recognized as the college prospect with the “Best Fastball” in this year’s Draft by Baseball America. He went 13-0 with a 2.35 ERA in fifteen starts this season en route to being named a Golden Spikes Award finalist, the Big 12 Pitcher of the Year and a Louisville Slugger First-Team All-American. The 6-foot-2, 205-pound junior tossed four shutouts and struck out 127 batters with just 38 bases on balls in 107.1 innings. His school-record thirteen wins led all NCAA pitchers, and his 127 strikeouts were sixth-most in the nation. Crow was a semi-finalist for the Dick Howser Trophy and the Roger Clemens Award this season, and at one point worked 43.0 consecutive scoreless innings, the fourth-longest such streak in NCAA history.

"We think that this is a pitcher, if he signs fast, can get to the big leagues fairly quickly," Bowden said. "The last game we saw him pitch, he would have pitched in the big leagues that night."

Tim Beckham, an 18-year old shortstop from Georgia, was the number one selection by the Tampa Bay Rays.